Tuesday, February 8, 2011

On the proper way of looking into the future

The Basis on how science looks into the future is history. History provides us with a nearly infinite number of facts which we can examine and from that build a model of the future. Moore's Law is a very good example of this. After 20 years in the computer chip industry, Moore realized that every year, the rate at which size decreased and power increased actually accelerated, thus making the progress exponential. Exponantial progress is a cruicial thing when evaluating facts from the past, because it is hard to distinguish it from linear progress when looking at timescales too small and early in the curve. Recent research has shown that basically every progress we humans made is exponential. It is the nature of technology to grow in such a way, because 'inventions' support each other in many various ways.
Notice how the green curve is indistinguishable from a linear one in the very beginning.

We now are at the so called 'knee point' of the exponantial curve, where, seemingly out of nowhere technical progress is made a matter of years, not generations or centuries. This is the most critical point in human development, because in this time the chance of 'accidentaly' wiping ourselves out is the greatest.

But now is also a time of wonders no man has ever seen before. Just take a look at the smartphone in your pocket. The possibilities of this machine are colossal compared to ALL computers on earth in 1960 TOGETHER. One should never cease to marvel at the things everyone takes for granted.

So based on these 'simple' observastions a conclusion jumps to mind. The next 30 years will hold more technological progress than the last 60. It is possible, that the first AGIs (Artificial General Intelligence) will emerge and that our aging process will stop to a grinding halt.
Be on the lookout and make your plans.

9 comments:

  1. It's pretty scary to think at how fast things compound. In 10 years we'll have things that were in science fiction movies only 5 years ago.

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  2. Hm, interessanter Aspekt, den du hier ansprichst.
    Und zu deinem comment auf meinem Blog bez├╝glich der Blizzcon:
    Du meinst bestimmt die Gamescom, die ich auch besuche.

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  3. That is VERY interesting....and its true, technology is growing TOO fast and we might not be prepared for it

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  4. I want to know how far will science fiction become real.

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  5. awesome info bro. hope to see more soon :)

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  6. Thanks, I look seeing more from you in the FUTURE. get it? haha

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  7. haha actually I'm considering getting 'more' of me when it becomes cheap enough :D

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  8. Is there any end to the exponential curve? Is there any tapering off? My instinct says no, and if that's the case that means our technological potential is literally infinite. That's crazy to think about.

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  9. the exponetial curve is comprised of the 's-curves' of the single inventions/paradigms, so it is highly ulikely for the overall exponential curve to 'taper off'.
    thank you for mentioning it! :)

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